Now is a great time to look back at the last 30 years to gain some perspective into what might be in store for us as investors in the NEXT decade to come.
1989 – 1999 was the 2nd BEST decade since the 1950s: This golden decade of the 1990s for U.S. stocks averaged +18.2% return per year as measured by the SP500.
Followed by the WORST decade in 200 years of recorded stock market history 2000 – 2009: Bookended by two 50% corrections 2000-2002 & 2008-2009 this LOST DECADE of the 2000s declined an average of (0.95%) per year for the US stock market SP500 index. Was this payback time for the previous golden decade?
And now the CURRENT decade 2009 – YTD 2019: As of 3/31/19, the SP500 closed out its best first quarter since 2009 +13.1%. But can there still be more room to run? With the SP500 “only” averaging +13% per year 12/31/09 thru 3/31/19, can this 2010s slow-growth decade catch up with the higher returns of the bull markets of the 1990s, 1980s and the 1950s?
What usually happens in years when the SP500 rises 10% or more in the first quarter? Since 1930 there have been only 13 other such years with Q1 rising 10% or more. And 8 out of those past 13 times, the following second quarter’s returns were positive.
How much runway do we have left? Since 1926, three of the 11 bull markets have exceeded the length of this current bull market in duration, total return & annualized return*. So theoretically there could be more runway ahead. But will the landing be soft or hard?
Any other worries? Resolution of global trade issues, disappointments in U.S. stock earnings & fluctuations in interest rates are a few of the headline issues as we enter the second quarter.
But no matter where we are in the stock market cycle, or where you are in your personal life cycle, you can count on W&A as your wealth manager to strategize for the future with you & your family.
Performance information provided is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and investments carry the risk of loss, including the risk of loss of invested capital.